Det Ch Insp Hamish Campbell, Kensington Police Station, London W8

Dear Hamish

We have discussed Ockham’s Razor and how accordingly one should look to obvious explanations first and unlikely ones later. The trouble in Jill’s case is that begs the question: what are the obvious explanations and which should have a low priority? It can depend on your perspective.

I believe strongly, as you do, in a systematic scientific approach to investigations using techniques including forensic science and forensic profiling to learn from past crimes. Among other things past cases teach us a certain amount about probabilities in Jill’s murder.

Probability takes on a new meaning when you are regularly on popular TV. One of the features is that we are known to a lot of weirdoes, far more than most people interact with, because our circle of acquaintances is measured not in hundreds but in millions. Moreover, they are sometimes more than acquaintances. They regard us as friends or even lovers. Viewers sometimes think they know us intimately. We do, after all, come into their lives and often share not just their living rooms but bedrooms too. In fact the prospect of Jill being ‘acquainted’ with someone suffering with an extremely rare psychopathic condition – provided a person with such a condition exists in the UK – is close to 100%.

From my standpoint it would be a miracle to win the National Lottery, but from Camelot’s point of view it would be no miracle at all – somebody has to win. From a routine point of view erotomania should be a low priority for investigation, but from a TV presenter’s circumstances perhaps it should be high. As I say, Jill’s profile, her glamour, her girl-next-door (I-could-be-your-girlfriend) appeal, make face-value odds of 58 million to one much, much shorter.

I am not a betting man and I do not have access to the information you have but unless you have an obvious lead, I do strongly suspect that Jill’s killer may indeed turn out to be a lone, obsessed psychopath – an extreme exception made less improbable simply because of Jill’s ubiquitous circle of friends.

One day I hope you will be able to prove this one way or the other. In the meantime I would be delighted to do a Crimewatch appeal along these lines. As always though, we will be guided by what you think is right. And, as always, if there is anything I can do (or not do!) let me know.

My best wishes.